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I'm not as knowledgeable as you about it, but I thought Medium was a logical step up from blogging platforms that charge writers for services, and Substack is a logical step up from Medium. I think that people are craving any platform that treats them better than a commodity. I think there's a big gaping hole for platforms that are good for their users, right now.

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Tomas Pueyo, the last "graduate" of Medium to Substack summarized it in a viral hit here: https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-future-of-substack

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Tedium summarized the situation and experience we all basically had on Medium: https://midrange.tedium.co/issues/medium-ev-williams-departure/

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Nathan a former (product) employee of Substack even chimed in: https://every.to/divinations/did-medium-succeed

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Casey Newton recently covered Medium's CEO stepping down: https://www.platformer.news/p/ev-williams-gives-up

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